3 Draft Picks to Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)

The NFL offseason is just beginning. The remainder of free agency, along with the upcoming NFL Draft, will impact volume distributions across the NFL. This will, in turn, have a drastic influence on how certain players are valued from a fantasy football perspective. We’ve already witnessed the shocking departures of stars like Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel, and plenty more transactions are coming before the season kicks off.

Nevertheless, it is never too early to start preparing for the upcoming fantasy football season. While the opening kick-off is still several months away, managers can use this time to review the main takeaways from this past season. The variety of publicly available tools and advanced statistics is greater than ever. Savvy managers should use these resources to gain a crucial edge over their peers.

Redraft Players to Avoid

In what follows, I’ll highlight several players who are currently being over-valued in half-PPR formats. The majority of these players are primed to disappoint due to inefficiency and/or a lack of stable volume. Of course, their respective outlooks may change as a result of transactions in the coming months. For this reason, it remains essential for managers to track depth chart changes throughout the offseason.

Davante Adams (WR – LAR)

Davante Adams is currently being ranked as the WR18, according to FantasyPros’ latest expert consensus rankings (ECR). He finds himself ahead of the likes of DJ Moore, Zay Flowers and Marvin Harrison Jr. While his move to the Los Angeles Rams will certainly help the team’s Super Bowl aspirations, I struggle to see the benefit from a fantasy football perspective. With the Rams, the declining veteran receiver won’t see the elite volume that has made him a consistent producer throughout his career.

Puka Nacua is the No. 1 WR in Sean McVay’s system. He put together an incredibly impressive sophomore season, leading all NFL wide receivers in Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade. What’s more, he averaged an astounding 9.37 targets per game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has developed a rapport with the young wideout, and this connection will continue to grow stronger in the coming years. Adams will ultimately have to settle for a smaller target share than he’s been accustomed to throughout his decorated career.

Adams’ declining efficiency metrics cast some doubt on whether he’ll be able to overcome this limited volume. His PFF receiving grade was his lowest since 2017 and his receiving yardage total was his lowest since 2019. At 32 years old, it’s safe to assume these trends will persist in the upcoming season.

Adams is a depreciating asset who figures to inherit a secondary role behind Nacua in the Rams’ offense. While catching passes from Stafford is certainly a positive, the underlying metrics aren’t in the veteran receiver’s favor. For this reason, I would avoid investing in Adams at his current average draft position (ADP) cost.

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

DK Metcalf‘s move to the Pittsburgh Steelers is devastating for George Pickens’ fantasy value. Since being drafted in 2022, Pickens has been a highly-volatile WR3 whose lack of volume has held him back from being a consistent producer in fantasy. His ability to generate explosive plays has often compensated for the slow-pace, run-heavy offense run in Pittsburgh. However, with another star receiver now in the fold, the odds are truly stacked against him in 2025.

Pickens finished as the WR42 in 2024. This was despite being the sole pass-catcher of note in Arthur Smith’s offensive scheme. What’s more, he had the benefit of working with well-respected veteran quarterback Russell Wilson. While Wilson has struggled to replicate his early-career success as of late, his deep ball remains among the NFL’s best. According to PFF, he earned a 95 passing grade on throws 20+ yards downfield. This plays perfectly into Pickens’ strengths as a field-stretching boundary receiver. His career average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.4 yards, per PFF, is indicative of this.

The quarterback situation in Pittsburgh remains ambiguous. They’ve been linked to several veterans, including the likes of Aaron Rodgers and the aforementioned Wilson. They may also address the position in the upcoming draft. In any case, Pickens is unlikely to benefit from the quarterback upgrade fantasy managers have been clamoring for.

Metcalf’s arrival suggests Pickens will no longer have a stranglehold on the high-value targets in this offense. Metcalf is an ultra-efficient deep threat in his own right, and PFF metrics indicate he and Pickens operate at a similar level of effectiveness. In 2024, both averaged four yards after the catch per reception, while Pickens’ contested catch rate (37%) was only marginally higher than Metcalf’s (36.6%). Their receiving grades were also close, with Metcalf earning a 75 grade and Pickens slightly edging him out with a 78 grade.

Arthur Smith’s tendency to emphasize the running game and negatively impact wide receiver fantasy value has been well documented. Pickens’ volume-related struggles will only get worse with another established receiving option on this depth chart. Pickens is not worth being drafted at his current fantasy football ADP of WR26.

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)

Isiah Pacheco quickly became a fantasy football afterthought after suffering a fractured fibula in Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season. Upon his return from injury, Pacheco was never handed the keys to the backfield as Kareem Hunt continued to handle a massive share of the volume. The eye test suggested Pacheco simply didn’t have the same explosiveness and tackle-breaking ability that played a featured role in past iterations of the Kansas City offense. Needless to say, Pacheco’s standing remains very unclear as we head deeper into the offseason.

From an efficiency standpoint, it was an incredibly disappointing year for Pacheco. Among running backs with at least 90 carries, the latter ranked 43rd in rushing grade, 49th in yards after contact per attempt and 49th in elusive rating, per PFF. He was consistently out-produced by Hunt, who was signed as a free agent after the first month of the NFL season. It’s fair to question whether Pacheco has lost Andy Reid’s trust as the workhorse back in his system.

Isiah Pacheco is a great reminder of two Dynasty Constants:

1- cashing out on non premium asset RBs when they spike in value.

2- players do not always come back from injury and have the same roles as when they left. Offenses and roles evolve.

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) February 10, 2025

With this in mind, the Chiefs are very likely to address the running back position during the offseason. Whether they acquire a free agent or draft a running back prospect, Pacheco will certainly be facing competition in training camp. At any rate, Pacheco will no longer be seeing the 20+ touches per game that made him a fantasy darling in recent years.

The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t operated with the same level of explosiveness and efficiency that we typically associate with Patrick Mahomes-led offenses. In 2022, the Chiefs averaged a league-leading 29.2 points per game. They’ve since averaged 22.2 and 23.1 points per game in the two subsequent seasons. The Chiefs’ shift towards a slow-paced, “dink and dunk” approach has coincided with a sharp decline in offensive production.

The team’s blowout loss in Super Bowl LIX may propel them to return to what works best on offense: Letting Mahomes push the ball downfield. Of course, this would result in a smaller emphasis being placed on the running game and Pacheco’s fantasy value would further decrease. His current expert consensus ranking as the RB21 is simply too optimistic.